The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its annual Renewable Energy Market Report on 9 October, which for the first time includes a section dedicated to renewable fuels, outlining the projected growth of liquid biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), biogas, and other forms of bioenergy, to 2030.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), despite accelerating demand growth, renewable energy is expected to account for less than 6 per cent of total energy demand by 2030. In order for renewable energy growth to be consistent with the IEA’s vision of achieving net-zero emissions from the energy sector by 2050, the adoption rate of renewable energy would need to double by 2030, the report notes. However, under current market conditions, the sector is only expected to grow by 20 per cent.
Bioenergy is expected to account for almost all of the growth in the renewable energy sector by 2030, with the most significant growth in bioenergy in industry, followed by transport and buildings. The IEA forecasts that road biofuels will continue to dominate by 2030, but notes that biofuel consumption for aviation and maritime uses is accelerating. The outlook predicts that biofuels for aviation will account for around 2 per cent of total aviation fuel supply by 2030, up from close to zero last year. This growth is expected to be supported by mandates from the EU, UK and US. In the maritime sector, EU legislation is expected to drive growth, with biofuels accounting for nearly 0.5 per cent of international shipping fuel demand by 2030.