The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on May 12, lowered its forecast for soybean oil consumption for biofuel production in 2024/25, but expects an increase in 2025/26.Soybean oil consumption for biofuels is forecast to be 13.1 billion pounds in 2024/25, a small increase from last month’s estimate of 13.25 billion pounds. downward revision. This figure, however, is expected to increase to 13.9 billion pounds in 2025/26, indicating continued growth in biofuel demand for soybean oil.
In terms of overall supply, U.S. soybean supplies in 2025/26 will be slightly lower than the previous year, mainly driven by lower production. Soybean production for the year is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, with lower exports and declining production reducing total supply by less than 1%, despite higher beginning stocks. U.S. soybean crush is forecast to reach 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million bushels from the previous year, helped by higher demand for soybean meal and increased exports.
On the price front, the 2025/26 average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel, up from $9.95 in 2024/25; soybean meal prices are forecast at $310 per short ton, up $10 year-on-year; and soybean oil prices are forecast at 46 cents per pound, up 1 cent year-on-year. Despite the pressured export outlook, U.S. soybean oil stocks are projected to increase 6 percent from the previous year.
Globally, soybean production in 2025/26 is forecast at 426.8 million tons, up 1%, with Brazil leading the way with a record production of 175 million tons, up 6 million tons from the previous year. Argentina, on the other hand, has seen production revised down to 48.5 million tons due to a shift in acreage to corn.
Global soybean crush is expected to grow 3% to 366.5 million tons, with China, the U.S., Brazil, Egypt, and Pakistan as the main driving forces. Global soybean exports are expected to grow 4% year-on-year to 188.4 million tons, with an 8.5 million-ton increase in exports from major South American exporters (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) more than offsetting the decline in U.S. exports. China’s soybean imports are expected to reach 112 million tons, up 4 million tons year-on-year.
Global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million tons, with Brazilian and Argentinean stocks increasing to compensate for the decline in U.S. stocks. Overall, the global soybean industry continues to be driven by both biofuels and international demand.
